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Th'ng Beng Hooi 15 Oct 08 presentation slides are ready for members to download.  Kindly visit "Resources--Analysts Contribution" to download the PDF file. File will be kept for a month, thank you. 


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Each week, the Newsletter will examine technical trading methods, new techniques, reviews of established indicators, assessment of methods used with new trading instruments and adaptations for developing market conditions. It brings together some noted writers, but also new and emerging writers who share their trading experience. Many of the writers first introduced in this newsletter have gone on to become recognised authors in their own right with books published by John Wiley and others.  

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Singapore stocks jump 5 percent on financials, commods
1/5/2009 1:05:21 AM Singapore Business News Headlines | Business
SINGAPORE, Jan 5 (Reuters) - Singapore's benchmark Straits Times Index <.FTSTI> rallied 5 percent in late trade on Monday, led by gains in financials and commodity stocks.
Singapore Petroleum says CEO to retire, return on contract
1/2/2009 2:34:53 AM Singapore Business News Headlines | Business
SINGAPORE, Jan 2 (Reuters) - Singapore Petroleum Corp (SPC) <SPCS.SI> said on Friday its Chief Executive Officer Koh Ban Heng will retire on Feb 5.
Singapore recession deepens, govt cuts 09 outlook
1/1/2009 9:54:38 PM Singapore Business News Headlines | Business
(Adds house price data)
Singapore's 2008 growth slumps to 1.5 pct, PM says
12/31/2008 3:05:00 AM Singapore Business News Headlines | Business
Singapore's economic growth slumped to 1.5 percent in 2008, its slowest pace in seven years, as a severe global downturn hurt tourism and demand for the city-state's exports, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said Wednesday.
Singapore, Incheon scrap plans for new budget airline
12/29/2008 11:08:00 PM Singapore Business News Headlines | Business
Singapore's Tiger Airways said Tuesday a plan to establish a budget carrier with South Korea's Incheon city has been scrapped due to the worsening global economic situation.
Output in recession-hit Singapore down 7.5 pct in Nov: govt
12/26/2008 12:53:00 AM Singapore Business News Headlines | Business
Singapore's manufacturing output fell 7.5 percent in November, according to the latest data, as exports from the recession-hit economy suffer during a global slowdown.
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High Probability Entry level and How to Fix Stop Loss/profit
Time:
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Date:
14th Jan 2009,  Wednesday
Venue:
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Exhibition room (2nd floor), 47 Hill Street, Singapore  179365, (for driving participants, there is multistory carpark behind SCCCI, at Capitol Building)
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Identify a Sideways market; how to search for a high probability trade entry;  the location of a stop loss and the profit exit............   

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Page 1 of 1First   Previous   Next   Last   
The Last 10 Dow Bears
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Location: BlogsLeong Yue Hoong    
Posted by: yuehoong 7/8/2008 4:21 PM

Following kpyang's excellent posting on the bearish Dow on Jul 01, the Dow market plunged a day after on Jul 02 entering into what the market coined as the 'Bear Market', a term used when the price has fallen more than 20% from its previous record high which was achieved on Oct 9 2007. It went on to set the tone for the all important employment release the following day for Jul 03 which was brought forward because of the US holiday.

Since 1900, whenever the Dow enetered into a Bear Market, it has on average dropped by 30% and lasted over a year. If you are interested in equity and what the bear market implies, Ned Davis Research's "The Stock Traders Almanac 2008" has an interesting recap of the last 10 Dow Bears which I summarised it here.

Mar 19 2002 - Oct 9 2002
Dow lost 31.5% in 204 days
Trigger: Worldcom and Enron

Jan 14 2000 - Sept 21 2001
Dow lost 29.7% in 616 days
Trigger: Bursting of dot-com bubbles.

Jun 17 1998 - Aug 31 1998
Dow lost 19.3% in 45 days
Trigger: Collapse of LTCM

Jun 17  1990 - Oct 11 1990
Dow lost 21.2% and lasted 86 days
Trigger: Invasion of Kuwait

Aug 25 1987 - Oct 19 1987
Dow lost 36.1% in 55 days
Trigger: Currency valuations debate between US and Germany

Nov 29 1983 - July 24 19874
Dow lost 15.6% in 238 days
Trigger: Inflation fear.

Apr 27 1981 - Aug 12 1982
Dow lost 24.1% in 472 days
Trigger: Excessive interest rates

Sept 8 1978 - Apr 21 1980
Dow lost 26.9% in 591 days
Trigger: Stagflation

Sept 21 1976 - Feb 28 1978
Dow lost 26.9% in 525 days
Trigger: Stagflation again

Jan 11 1973 - Dec 6 1974
Dow lost 45.1% in 694 days
Trigger: Watergate scandal and trhe Arab-Israel war.

I supposed that brings back alot of memories for those who have been in the market for many years. Notice that recent bear markets tend to recover faster than older ones. International linkages and dynamism with other non-equity markets offer more avenues for equity to recover from major Bears as compared to the older days. Also, notice that most Bears were caused by inflation resulted primarily from runaway oil prices which were very similar to what we are witnessing now. The oil plays and credit situation should continue to be the drivers for the quity market in the short term ahead.

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Comments (3)   Add Comment
Re: The Last 10 Dow Bears    By kpyang on 7/8/2008 10:21 PM
Hi Yue Hoong, <br><br>Wow, that's great information. Based on same analogy, the high of Dow on 10 Dec, 2007 was 14198.1, if taking 30% away, Dow may correct down to 9938.67. That's a scary information to know. But we must take precautions to protect ourselves if that happens.<br><br>BTW, I still could not upload image to TASS, I think maybe we members are not given the permission to upload images. I do not see the upload button as shown in Wang Tao's post. Can you please verify that?<br><br>Thank you.<br><br><br>

Re: The Last 10 Dow Bears    By zhuyuan on 7/12/2008 9:54 PM
this time maybe can add in Fennie Mae and Freddie Mac

Re: The Last 10 Dow Bears    By tassadmin on 7/15/2008 5:12 PM
Hi Kok Ping, I have replied to you separately on the image issue, tks. Hi Zhu Yuan, tks for bringing them up, yes these 2 institutions are extremely impt and are unfort also affected by the foreclosures. However I do not see them as the trigger point for the downturn, they are more like the victims themselves. Their fate though will have immense impact on american society.


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